Forecasting

Make your forecast assumptions visible

Connect the financial plan to the way your business actually operates.

A forecast becomes easier to discuss when the inputs behind it are explicit. Start with the business activity that drives each major line.

Separate inputs from outcomes

Sales volume, price, hiring dates, and collection timing are inputs. Revenue, expenses, and cash balances are outcomes. Keep the relationship between them understandable.

Record the reason behind the number

For each important assumption, note its source, owner, and review date. Distinguish confirmed commitments from estimates that still need validation.

Explore a small set of scenarios

Describe what would change in a slower, expected, or stronger operating environment. Explain which decisions would be affected in each case.

Review what changed

When actual results arrive, compare them with the assumptions. Decide whether the difference is about timing, activity, or a more lasting change in the business.

A general discussion guide. The right approach depends on your business and financial circumstances.

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